When it comes to exchange rates, or any other financial instrument that is traded in an exchange, we should expect a reaction to any sort of data surprise, either positive or negative. If no surprises are recorded, then we would expect no change in the exchange rate. The idea is that experts aim to provide a forecast on the future values of important variables...
Traditionally, when a certain country raises its interest rate, its currency will consequently strengthen, this is due to the fact that investors will shift their assets to the country in question, in order to achieve higher returns. Be sure to take this into account when making a Forex prediction. Considerable decreases in payroll employment are one of the warning signs of weak economic activity, that could eventually lead to lower interest rates. This can have a negative impact on a currency. A country that has a substantial trade balance deficiency will most likely have a weak currency, because there will be sustained commercial selling of its currency accordingly. GDP is a primary identifier of the strength of economic activity. There is a connection between a high GDP figure, and expectations of higher interest rates, which is positive for the currency in question.
U.S. President Richard Nixon’s nullification of the Bretton Woods Accord in 1971 effectively ended the fixed price peg of the US Dollar — and by extension many other world currencies — to gold. The US Dollar officially became a floating fiat currency and was adopted as a reserve currency by many foreign nations, who continue to use it as a reserve currency today.
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The foreign exchange market is the most liquid financial market in the world. Traders include governments and central banks, commercial banks, other institutional investors and financial institutions, currency speculators, other commercial corporations, and individuals. According to the 2010 Triennial Central Bank Survey, coordinated by the Bank for International Settlements, average daily turnover was $3.98 trillion in April 2010 (compared to $1.7 trillion in 1998). Of this $3.98 trillion, $1.5 trillion was spot transactions and $2.5 trillion was traded in outright forwards, swaps, and other derivatives.
The most common type of forward transaction is the foreign exchange swap. In a swap, two parties exchange currencies for a certain length of time and agree to reverse the transaction at a later date. These are not standardized contracts and are not traded through an exchange. A deposit is often required in order to hold the position open until the transaction is completed.
Currency trading and exchange first occurred in ancient times. Money-changers (people helping others to change money and also taking a commission or charging a fee) were living in the Holy Land in the times of the Talmudic writings (Biblical times). These people (sometimes called "kollybistẻs") used city stalls, and at feast times the Temple's Court of the Gentiles instead. Money-changers were also the silversmiths and/or goldsmiths of more recent ancient times.
If you take a look at the FOREX quotes on your trading platform you will see that there are two prices for each currency pair. One is the price at which you can buy, referred to as the "ask price", and the other is the price at which you can sell, referred to as the "bid price". The difference between these two prices is known as the spread. The ask price is always higher than the bid price.
FX fundamental analysis concentrates on different factors within the FX market. Traders need to pay attention to fundamental factors such as: gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, economic growth activity, and manufacturing. Thus, fundamental analysis in Forex involves studying the economic strength of various countries, in order to make wise Forex predictions. It provides us with information on how geopolitical and economical events influence the currency market. For example, certain figures and statements given in speeches by politicians or economists are classed amongst traders as 'concrete economical announcements'. These can have a serious impact on currency market moves. In fact, announcements related to the economy or politics in the US are particularly crucial to follow.
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Currencies are traded against one another in pairs. Each currency pair thus constitutes an individual trading product and is traditionally noted XXXYYY or XXX/YYY, where XXX and YYY are the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currencies involved. The first currency (XXX) is the base currency that is quoted relative to the second currency (YYY), called the counter currency (or quote currency). For instance, the quotation EURUSD (EUR/USD) 1.5465 is the price of the Euro expressed in US dollars, meaning 1 euro = 1.5465 dollars. The market convention is to quote most exchange rates against the USD with the US dollar as the base currency (e.g. USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF). The exceptions are the British pound (GBP), Australian dollar (AUD), the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the euro (EUR) where the USD is the counter currency (e.g. GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD).
In the context of the foreign exchange market, traders liquidate their positions in various currencies to take up positions in safe-haven currencies, such as the US dollar. Sometimes, the choice of a safe haven currency is more of a choice based on prevailing sentiments rather than one of economic statistics. An example would be the financial crisis of 2008. The value of equities across the world fell while the US dollar strengthened (see Fig.1). This happened despite the strong focus of the crisis in the US.
Consider this: large volumes of forex are traded in the markets due to the necessity of currency exchange required in international trade. Large institutions may need to settle accounts in a cross-border manner quite frequently. As an example, an American company, looking to pay its German division, will need to pay them in euros. This means a forex transaction will be completed, and will likely influence the EUR/USD pair, even if only slightly.
Live Spreads Widget: Dynamic live spreads are available on Active Trader commission-based accounts. When static spreads are displayed, the figures are time-weighted averages derived from tradable prices at FXCM from October 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.