There are many factors that can impact – or potentially impact – currency market prices. Such factors include economic and political events and announcements, interest rates, inflation levels and natural disasters – among others. There’s no sure-fire way to predict price movements, but some handy hints can be gleaned through the analytical techniques implemented and shared by trading analysts.
The increasingly asymmetric relationship between the currency markets and national governments represents a classic autonomy problem. The “trilemma” of economic policy options available to governments are laid out by the Mundell-Fleming model. The model shows that governments have to choose two of the following three policy aims: (1) domestic monetary autonomy (the ability to control the money supply and set interest rates and thus control growth); (2) exchange rate stability (the ability to reduce uncertainty through a fixed, pegged, or managed regime); and (3) capital mobility (allowing investment to move in and out of the country).
High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade the products offered by FXCM you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. FXCM provides general advice that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice. FXCM recommends you seek advice from a separate financial advisor.
Unlike a stock market, the foreign exchange market is divided into levels of access. At the top is the interbank foreign exchange market, which is made up of the largest commercial banks and securities dealers. Within the interbank market, spreads, which are the difference between the bid and ask prices, are razor sharp and not known to players outside the inner circle. The difference between the bid and ask prices widens (for example from 0 to 1 pip to 1–2 pips for currencies such as the EUR) as you go down the levels of access. This is due to volume. If a trader can guarantee large numbers of transactions for large amounts, they can demand a smaller difference between the bid and ask price, which is referred to as a better spread. The levels of access that make up the foreign exchange market are determined by the size of the "line" (the amount of money with which they are trading). The top-tier interbank market accounts for 51% of all transactions.[63] From there, smaller banks, followed by large multi-national corporations (which need to hedge risk and pay employees in different countries), large hedge funds, and even some of the retail market makers. According to Galati and Melvin, “Pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, and in FX markets in particular, since the early 2000s.” (2004) In addition, he notes, “Hedge funds have grown markedly over the 2001–2004 period in terms of both number and overall size”.[64] Central banks also participate in the foreign exchange market to align currencies to their economic needs.
a MARKET engaged in the buying and selling of FOREIGN CURRENCIES. Such a market is required because each country involved in INTERNATIONAL TRADE and investment has its own domestic currency and this needs to be exchanged for other currencies in order to finance trade and capital transactions. This function is undertaken by a network of private foreign exchange dealers and a country's monetary authorities acting through its central banks.
You may have noticed that the value of currencies goes up and down every day. What most people don't realize is that there is a foreign exchange market - or 'Forex' for short - where you can potentially profit from the movement of these currencies. The best known example is George Soros who made a billion dollars in a day by trading currencies. Be aware, however, that currency trading involves significant risk and individuals can lose a substantial part of their investment. As technologies have improved, the Forex market has become more accessible resulting in an unprecedented growth in online trading. One of the great things about trading currencies now is that you no longer have to be a big money manager to trade this market; traders and investors like you and I can trade this market.
Historically, different international monetary systems have emphasized different policy mixes. For instance, the Bretton Woods system emphasized the first two at the expense of free capital movement. The collapse of the system destroyed the stability and predictability of the currency markets. The resultant large fluctuations meant a rise in exchange rate risk (as well as in profit opportunities). Governments now face numerous challenges that are often captured under the term globalization or capital mobility: the move to floating exchange rates, the political liberalization of capital controls, and technological and financial innovation.
Forex traders should proceed with caution, because currency trades often involve high leverage rates of 1000 to 1. While this ratio offers tantalizing profit opportunities, it comes with an investor's risk of losing an entire investment on a single trade. In fact, a 2014 Citibank study found that just 30% of retail forex traders break even or better. But tellingly, 84% of those polled believe they can make money in the forex market. The chief takeaway: new forex investors should open accounts with firms that offer demo platforms, that let them make mock forex trades and tally imaginary gains and losses, until investors become seasoned enough to confidently trade for real.
The need to exchange currencies is the primary reason why the forex market is the largest, most liquid financial market in the world. It dwarfs other markets in size, even the stock market, with an average traded value of around U.S. $2,000 billion per day. (The total volume changes all the time, but as of August 2012, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that the forex market traded in excess of U.S. $4.9 trillion per day.)
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