Currency and exchange were important elements of trade in the ancient world, enabling people to buy and sell items like food, pottery, and raw materials. If a Greek coin held more gold than an Egyptian coin due to its size or content, then a merchant could barter fewer Greek gold coins for more Egyptian ones, or for more material goods. This is why, at some point in their history, most world currencies in circulation today had a value fixed to a specific quantity of a recognized standard like silver and gold.
Before the Internet revolution only large players such as international banks, hedge funds and extremely wealthy individuals could participate. Now retail traders can buy, sell and speculate on currencies from the comfort of their homes with a mouse click through online brokerage accounts. There are many tradable currency pairs and an average online broker has about 40. One of our most popular chats is the Forex chat where traders talk in real-time about where the market is going.
If you scrupulously trail all events, micro factors and macro factors, you have a much higher chance of success in making your predictions. But you should understand that this is not easy. There are some sites that offer so-called free Forex predictions, but you should avoid them, as they are not reliable. To track economic announcements, forecasts, and other important information related to Forex, many professional FX traders use a Forex Calendar.
In forex, currencies are quoted in pairs. Let’s take the most popular currency pair as an example, EUR/USD. The first currency (Euro in this case) is called the base currency and the second (USD) is called the quote currency. When you trade a pair you are speculating on whether the base currency (EUR) will strengthen or weaken against the quote currency (USD).
Currency carry trade refers to the act of borrowing one currency that has a low interest rate in order to purchase another with a higher interest rate. A large difference in rates can be highly profitable for the trader, especially if high leverage is used. However, with all levered investments this is a double edged sword, and large exchange rate price fluctuations can suddenly swing trades into huge losses.
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Hedge funds – Somewhere around 70 to 90% of all foreign exchange transactions are speculative in nature. This means, the person or institutions that bought or sold the currency has no plan of actually taking delivery of the currency; instead, the transaction was executed with sole intention of speculating on the price movement of that particular currency. Retail speculators (you and I) are small cheese compared to the big hedge funds that control and speculate with billions of dollars of equity each day in the currency markets.
Moving back to predicting movements in the market, we must acknowledge that a trader must have a thorough comprehension of the factors that can affect the movement of a currency's exchange rate, if they want to be successful. Remember - there is no ultimate Forex prediction formula - it all depends on your own skills, experiences, the accuracy of your foreign exchange forecasting, and the commitment to succeeding. The five factors you need to understand are:
The international governance regime is a complex and multilayered bricolage of institutions, with private institutions playing an important role; witness the large role for private institutions, such as credit rating agencies, in guiding the markets. Also, banks remain the major players in the market and are supervised by the national monetary authorities. These national monetary authorities follow the international guidelines promulgated by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which is part of the BIS. Capital adequacy requirements are to protect principals against credit risk, market risk, and settlement risk. Crucially, the risk management, certainly within the leading international banks, has become to a large extent a matter for internal setting and monitoring.
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High Risk Warning: Forex, Futures, and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risks. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. You must be aware of the risks of investing in forex, futures, and options and be willing to accept them in order to trade in these markets. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Please do not trade with borrowed money or money you cannot afford to lose. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Please remember that the past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
In the contemporary international monetary system, floating exchange rates are the norm. However, different governments pursue a variety of alternative policy mixes or attempt to minimize exchange rate fluctuations through different strategies. For example, the United States displayed a preference for ad hoc international coordination, such as the Plaza Agreement in 1985 and the Louvre Accord in 1987, to intervene and manage the price of the dollar. Europe responded by forging ahead with a regional monetary union based on the desire to eliminate exchange rate risk, whereas many developing governments with smaller economies chose the route of “dollarization”—that is, either fixing to or choosing to have the dollar as their currency.
The forex market is the largest market in the world with an average trading value over $5 trillion per day. It has no centralized marketplace where transactions are conducted. Forex trading is carried out electronically over-the-counter (OTC), meaning that all trading transactions are performed via computer by traders and other market participants over the world.
Once Nixon abolished the gold standard, the dollar's value quickly plummeted. The dollar index was established to give companies the ability to hedge this risk. Someone created the U.S. Dollar Index to give them a tradeable platform. Soon, banks, hedge funds, and some speculative traders entered the market. They were more interested in chasing profit than in hedging risks.
An exchange rate can suffer rapid changes, sometimes several times a second, so there’s a lot of action going on 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. In general, the currency exchange rate reflects the health of an economy in comparison to others. If the economies of the Eurozone are doing better than the US economy, the euro will go up compared to the dollar (EUR/USD ↑) and vice-versa.
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For instance, if we take a less active period between 5 pm – 7 pm EST, after New York closes and before Tokyo opens, Sydney will be open for trading but with more modest activity than the three major sessions (London, US, Tokyo). Consequently, less activity means less financial opportunity. If you want to trade currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD or USD/CHF you will find more activity between 8 am – 12 am when both Europe and the United States are active.
A foreign exchange market is a 24-hour over-the-counter (OTC) and dealers’ market, meaning that transactions are completed between two participants via telecommunications technology. The currency markets are also further divided into spot markets—which are for two-day settlements—and the forward, swap, interbank futures, and options markets. London, New York, and Tokyo dominate foreign exchange trading. The currency markets are the largest and most liquid of all the financial markets; the triennial figures from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) put daily global turnover in the foreign exchange markets in trillions of dollars. It is sobering to consider that in the early 21st century an annual world trade’s foreign exchange is traded in just less than every five days on the currency markets, although the widespread use of hedging and exchanges into and out of vehicle currencies—as a more liquid medium of exchange—means that such measures of financial activity can be exaggerated.
Being capable of identifying trends is one of the core skills a Forex trader should possess, as it can prove to be highly useful in making any Forex market prediction. The trend is the general direction of a market or an asset price. Trends may vary in length, from short to intermediate, or to long term. Being able to identify a trend can prove to be highly profitable, and the reason is that you will be able to trade with the trend.
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